COP30 in Belém: What the Mutirão Agreement Delivers – and Why It Falls Short on Fossil Fuels

COP30, the 30th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP), closed on 22 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil, in the heart of the Amazon. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, COP30 was supposed to be the “implementation COP”: fewer announcements, more concrete tools to cut emissions and increase climate resilience.

The outcome is the Mutirão Decision – a package that strengthens climate finance, adaptation and just transition, but leaves the central issue unresolved: a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.

What Is the Mutirão Decision Adopted at COP30 in Belém?

The Mutirão Decision is the main political text approved at COP30 in Belém. In Brazilian culture, mutirão refers to a collective community effort towards a shared goal – an image the COP30 Presidency chose to inspire global mobilisation against the climate crisis.

With the Mutirão Decision, countries:

• Reaffirm the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

• Recall the need to respect human rights, including the rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and people of African descent.

• Recognise the key role of cities, businesses and civil society in implementing climate policies.

The Mutirão Decision becomes the political umbrella for four main pillars:

1. Climate finance

2. Climate adaptation

3. Implementation of national commitments

4. Just transition

Climate Finance at COP30: USD 1.3 Trillion a Year by 2035

One of the most visible outcomes of COP30 concerns climate finance. The Mutirão Decision builds on the new climate finance goal adopted at COP29 and defines the operational framework up to 2035.

The New Climate Finance Goal

The Belém agreement sets a political goal to mobilise at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035 in support of developing countries, combining public and private finance. A share of this amount should come from international public finance, with a guaranteed minimum.

To follow this process, COP30 establishes a two-year work programme on climate finance that will:

• Monitor progress towards the new quantitative goal.

• Discuss criteria, sources and responsibilities for public and private actors.

• Create a stable dialogue between developed countries, emerging economies and the most vulnerable countries.

For climate-vulnerable nations, this framework will be crucial to access predictable and affordable finance for mitigation and adaptation projects.

Climate Adaptation at COP30: Tripling Finance by 2035

COP30 also decides to triple climate adaptation finance by 2035. This is an important political signal towards countries most exposed to heatwaves, extreme droughts, floods and sea-level rise.

However, international reports on the adaptation gap show that:

• Annual adaptation finance needs in developing countries are already in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

• Actual resources delivered are far below what is needed on the ground.

Tripling adaptation finance is therefore a step forward, but it does not close the gap between real needs and available funding.

Global Goal on Adaptation: New Indicators and National Plans

Another technical – but crucial – outcome of COP30 concerns the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), the global adaptation objective under the Paris Agreement.

New Global Indicators for Climate Adaptation

In Belém, countries adopt a list of around 60 global indicators for adaptation. These indicators are designed to measure, in a comparable way:

• Means of implementation: finance, technology and capacity-building.

• Resilience of human and natural systems.

• Inclusion of gender, age and Indigenous knowledge in adaptation policies.

Last-minute changes, however, weaken the internal coherence of this framework, with the risk of making it harder for countries to use these indicators in the transparency reports they must submit to the UN.

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)

COP30 also unblocks the decision on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which had been stalled for two years. The text:

• Acknowledges the progress made by developing countries in preparing and updating NAPs.

• Highlights the challenges in accessing climate data, technical expertise and financial resources.

• Invites donors to facilitate access to funds and to support integrated planning that links adaptation, development and disaster risk reduction.

For Italy and the European Union, the quality of NAPs becomes a key benchmark for development cooperation and public climate finance.

The Big Missing Piece at COP30: A Global Roadmap to Phase Out Fossil Fuels

On the decisive issue of phasing out fossil fuels, COP30 in Belém fails to make the expected leap.

No Direct Reference to Fossil Fuels in the Mutirão Decision

Despite a group of more than 80 countries calling for a clear roadmap, the Mutirão Decision:

• Never directly mentions oil, coal and gas.

• Does not include a shared plan for the gradual and definitive phase-out of fossil fuels.

• Does not explicitly address the reform of fossil fuel subsidies.

Many countries – including EU Member States and countries such as Colombia and Panama – consider this outcome insufficient and describe it as a compromise that falls short, especially when compared to the political signal sent by COP28 in Dubai.

The Role of BRICS and Geopolitical Tensions

Many observers see COP30 as a “BRICS COP”. The negotiations are strongly influenced by:

• The absence of a US delegation.

• The position of major fossil fuel-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and India.

• Tensions between these actors and the European Union, which pushed for stronger language on fossil fuel phase-out.

In the end, the EU decides not to block the Mutirão agreement, but clearly states that it does not consider it sufficientin terms of decarbonisation.

Belém Action Mechanism and Just Transition: The Positive Side of the Agreement

Alongside the texts on finance and adaptation, COP30 launches a series of new initiatives focused on implementationand just transition.

Belém Mission to 1.5°C and the Global Implementation Accelerator

Two instruments are designed to strengthen concrete climate action at country level:

• Belém Mission to 1.5°C: a political process from now to COP31 aimed at realigning Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with the 1.5°C goal.

• Global Implementation Accelerator: a platform meant to help countries move from written commitments to real projects and policies, coordinating technical and financial support.

For Italy and the EU, these initiatives are an opportunity to better align domestic policies, international cooperationand financial instruments.

Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) for Just Transition

COP30 also launches work on the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), a mechanism dedicated to just transition. Its objectives are to:

• Support countries in developing just transition plans that protect workers and communities.

• Promote technology and finance cooperation that is not debt-creating.

• Coordinate the many existing just transition initiatives within a more coherent global framework.

In short, BAM attempts to fill a gap: putting social equity, jobs and rights at the centre while energy, industrial and urban systems are transformed.

Other Key Outcomes from COP30: Disinformation, Trade and Gender Action

Climate Disinformation and the Role of Science

For the first time, the final decisions of a COP:

• Recognise climate disinformation as an obstacle to science-based policymaking.

• Call on governments to protect the integrity of climate information.

At the same time, a sensitive debate opens on the role of the IPCC. Some countries propose complementing its global reports with regional documents, potentially putting at risk the unity of the global scientific framework.

Climate and Trade: Towards a Structured Dialogue

The link between climate policy and international trade is another growing front:

• Measures such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are perceived by some countries as trade barriers.

• COP30 decides to initiate a series of climate-trade dialogues under the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies, with a high-level event planned in the coming period.

This could become a key space to discuss how to align trade rules with climate ambition, avoiding new fault lines between regions.

Gender Action Plan: Integrating Gender into Climate Policy

COP30 updates the Gender Action Plan, the framework for gender equality in climate policies. Among the priorities:

• Use disaggregated data to analyse the impact of climate policies on women, girls and vulnerable groups.

• Integrate gender analysis into NDCs, NAPs and climate finance instruments.

• Enhance the participation of women in climate decision-making processes.

What COP30 Means for Italy, Europe and Sustainability Professionals

COP30 in Belém leaves the world with a two-sided agreement:

• On the positive side: it advances on climate finance, adaptation, just transition, human rights, gender and the role of non-state actors.

• On the critical side: it does not define a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, despite clear scientific urgency.

For Italy, the European Union and everyone working in climate and sustainability, this scenario translates into three operational priorities.

1. Strengthen Domestic Policies

• Align energy-climate plans, industrial strategies and the reform of environmentally harmful subsidies with the 1.5°C goal.

• Integrate adaptation and just transition more seriously into national and local policies.

2. Make Better Use of Climate Finance

• Connect local and regional projects – such as energy communities, urban regeneration, and nature-based solutions in cities – to European and international climate finance.

• Support partners in developing countries on NAPs, adaptation and resilience, combining finance with technical cooperation.

3. Push Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Beyond the COP Process

• Actively participate in and give weight to roadmaps and coalitions for fossil fuel phase-out that will develop outside formal UN negotiations.

• Use data, advocacy campaigns and investment choices to make it clear that serious climate policy is incompatible with new fossil fuel infrastructure.

From Global Frameworks to Local Action

COP30 does not close the chapter on fossil fuel phase-out – it postpones it. For those working on climate and sustainability, the key message is clear:

It is not enough to look at what is decided at COPs. We must turn these global frameworks into concrete choices in territories, businesses and cities.

The Mutirão spirit of collective action now needs to move from negotiation halls in Belém to real-world transformations in energy systems, value chains and everyday life.